In 1992, it was new and rather sexy. By 1996, it was a concept no politician could afford to overlook. Now, in the US at least, it's almost too obvious to mention - the gender gap.
The voting patterns of American women are different from the voting patterns of American men. According to the latest figures, 54 per cent of women voted for Al Gore last week, against only 42 per cent of men. If men alone had voted, Gore would not have won in 16 of the 20 states he carried. George W. Bush would have won the national popular vote hands down - and taken Florida with a 53 per cent lead.
Of course, there's more to the gender gap than meets the eye. For example, while it is true that Bill Clinton has women voters to thank for his time in office, it's African-American women voters he should be thanking most. Race still matters. As does religion, and education and annual income. When you look at the voting patterns of white suburbanites, married mothers, and "mainline Protestants', the gender gap is so narrow it almost ceases to exist.
Last Tuesday, for example, exit polls found that white women were almost evenly split between the two main candidates. There is no shortage of high-powered, outspoken women in the upper echelons of the Republican Party. Women make up 65 per cent of the activists in the party. So to speak about "the issues that women most care about' is not necessarily to brandish a left of centre agenda. But to a large degree, the gender gap is still something Democrats worry about more than Republicans.
It is unlikely that a Republican-dominated Washington would be a hub of gender activism over the next four years. Where does that leave women and the issues they care most about? In the left-of-centre Washington Non Governmental Organisation world, the consensus is that the situation is worrying, but not hopeless. The greatest immediate concern is the Supreme Court. There are no vacancies there at present but the various women's caucuses and lobbying organisations have already announced a plan to work together to keep Bush, if he gets in, from filling the Supreme Court and the back benches of the judiciary with "ideological dinosaurs'.
They've also just initiated a Women's Appointment Network that will aim to put pressure on the next President to increase the number of women political appointees. They're not merely targeting the top jobs: they also want to see more women Under Secretaries, general counsels and policy analysts.
However, only certain kinds of women need apply. The Wan group has made it clear that it will only be lobbying for women who are pro-choice. And here we come to the issue at the very heart of the gender gap: abortion. A large number of American women still identify themselves as pro-life, and the Republican Party is officially anti-abortion. But there is also broad pro-choice support inside the party, which is why Bush went out of his way to avoid the issue during his campaign.
The abortion issue is seen to be the single most important issue leading women to vote Democrat more than men do. And it's more than simply a moral stance: one of the first things the new President will have to do is make a decision about the abortion drug, RU486. It has just been passed by Clinton's Food and Drug Administration. But it will be up to the new President to either reconfirm the licence or veto it. The educated guess is that Bush will opt for a veto - if not willingly, then under pressure from his right wing.
There is also concern that he will appoint an "unsympathetic' Attorney General, who will put women and the employees of abortion clinics at risk by failing to provide them with a "buffer zone'. If the new administration does too little to protect women and their reproductive rights, Democrat Party fundraiser Shanti Fry expects abortion to grow in importance as a women"s issue.
Right now, though, the primary issue for women voters in both parties is education. Fry believes that the fall in education standards has been a "subterranean concern' for decades, but, until very recently, it was (largely because of the way in which schools are funded) viewed as a local issue. Now (partly because Bush has taken it up in a big way) it's suddenly become a national disgrace. According to Evelyn Murphy, former Lieutenant General of Massachusetts, the catalyst was the internet.
Once parents in less privileged situations had versed themselves in the mantras of the information revolution, they became increasingly aware that their children were being left behind, and why. Bush's taking up of the issue could be seen as his way of pandering to the gender gap, for it is mothers more than fathers who have expressed concern.
There are other issues that women are more statistically likely to care about, which Bush will be unable to touch. His dependence on money from the tobacco and pharmaceutical industries and the gun lobby will keep him from taking firm action on gun control, smoking, or the high cost of healthcare. But, according to Murphy, the issue that may replace abortion as the single most important gender issue come the next election is something far larger, and far more difficult to address. This is the "women-and-work" question. It's just about to peak, Murphy says, because the US has just reached the stage when just about every adult woman who can work, does work. But not for pin money.
Increasingly they and their families depend on their salaries for sustenance, and their frustration at the pay inequities is growing just as fast. White women earn on average 74 cents for every male dollar. African-American women earn 64 cents and Latinas 54. While little was said on the issue during the election, there is, says Murphy, a growing militancy among women, an increasing number of whom have been taking their employers to court. This has led in turn to an upturn in union interest, and a nervousness in many companies that unfair wage structures might make them "vulnerable'.
So the groundwork has already been done. All that's needed is a politician to swoop in and take all the credit. In Murphy's view, Gore was seeking to do just this at the end of the campaign, when he began to many pointed comments about wage discrimination. She believes that it was this more than anything that gained him such strong support from working women. While the overall gender gap in this election was 10 or 11 per cent, analysts are putting the gap for working women at 18 or 19 per cent.
If the new administration does nothing to address their concerns, things can only get worse. But one day, a charming prince will arrive to work their disaffection to his advantage. In 2004, perhaps?
