Patients' first contact with the NHS in 20 years time will be via interactive "cyber-physicians" accessed through domestic television sets, according to a government-sponsored study.
Patients will be able to electronically access their medical records from home using a swipe card, and monitor their illness recovery programmes without visiting a hospital or GP surgery.
This and other developments in information technology, science and genetics will revolutionise healthcare, says the report, published today by Foresight, a Department of Trade and Industry sponsored research body, tasked with looking at how developments in science and industry will affect the UK society in the future.
It predicts that many traditional forms of hospital-based, face-to face care delivered by health professionals will disappear as new technologies transform the way healthcare is provided.
Other predictions in the report, Healthcare 2020, include:
• Patient interest groups will gain greater power as they organise on an international basis. Rather than volunteering for clinical trials, disease groups may strike deals with companies for services or cash in return for their involvement
• Each patient will have his or her "health biography" containing clinical, genetic and other personal details held in encrypted form on the internet. Patients would own their record and be able to sell it to private companies
• Much hospital based care will be carried out at home, using internet-based advice, with care and advice provided by community pharmacists, and lay health advocates
But the report admits that NHS is not currently geared up to properly exploit the possibilities of technology. "It is widely recognised that the organisation is at least a decade behind the commercial sector in information technology and its uses."
The panel was chaired by Sir Michael Peckham, of University College London's school of public policy. Sir Michael is a former head of NHS research and development.
The report says that within two decades, most NHS services and health service research and development, may be carried out by licensed non-public service providers.
"It is conceivable that the NHS in 20 years time will concentrate on the developmental aspects of health care and on the use of its brand name to permit a range of carefully chosen organisations to provide specific services to explicit quality standards," says the report.
But the report, which builds up a picture of UK healthcare in 2020, also believes the essential principles of the NHS - of universal care free at the point of delivery - will survive, not least because of because its value to the UK economy.
"The opportunities for society in terms of physical, mental and economic health offered by comprehensive health care are clear," the report adds.
"A comprehensive national system with universal coverage and registration such as the NHS offers great potential advantages, particularly in terms of access to health care and equity of outcome.
"This will be increasingly important as new growth areas, such as genomics and informatics, risk exacerbating disparities between individuals and groups in society."
