A tide of obesity will sweep Europe over the next four years and cause a boom in the diet industry as consumers try to get back into shape, market analysts said yesterday. The most serious weight problems will be seen in Germany where the proportion of people who are overweight or obese will increase from 57% last year to 71% in 2006.
Problems of excess weight will affect 69% of adults in Spain and the Netherlands, 60% of Swedes and 59% of Italians.
Although Britain and France will have weight problems, they will have more people who are underweight than obese.
In Britain the proportion who are overweight or obese will increase from 48% last year to 52% in 2006. In France it will rise from 37% to 50%.
The forecasts were prepared by the market analysts Datamonitor on the basis of trends since 1996. Obesity was measured using a body mass index to measure excess fat. The index divides the person's weight in kilograms by their height in metres squared. A BMI of 20-25 is normal, 25-30 is overweight and more than 30 is obese.
Andrew Russell, the company's consumer market analyst, said the trend to excess weight followed 20 years of convenience foods and unconventional mealtimes.
"Modern diets are more calorific, yet people expend less energy during the day ... Those who find themselves overweight and those who are keen to avoid being in that position are increasingly interested in using both exercise and diet to manage their shape," he said.
The diet food and drinks market would increase from £51bn in 1996 to £61bn in 2006.
The underweight were the least likely to take exercise, but people of normal weight were "a good market segment as they display a strong desire to manage their shape and more willpower to apply the necessary changes to their lifestyle," he said.
The overweight were the second most profitable group. They would continually try to make small changes to their lifestyle and diet without ever removing the underlying need to do so. This made them "potentially lifelong customers.
"While both the normal weight and overweight consumer can oscillate between a desire for health and a desire for indulgence, the overweight consumer will do so with greater frequency - possibly even between lunchtime and dinner."
Mr Russell said people abstaining from alcohol because they were concerned about their weight or shape would cost the European drinks industry £3.2bn by 2006.
· Children are "eating themselves sick" with poor diets and unhealthy lifestyles, nutritionists warned yesterday during a conference at the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health in London. They suggested that postwar rationing was better for children than the 21st century snack culture.
Youngsters today were experiencing the nutritional equivalent of the Victorian age when rickets and scurvy were commonplace.
