More than 2,500 people will die unnecessarily in England and Wales this week as a direct result of the cold weather, according to a forecast yesterday from the Faculty of Public Health and the Met Office.
They said most of the avoidable fatalities will be caused by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases that strike older people living in damp and cold housing, or going outside without wrapping up warmly.
Each winter, a higher proportion of the UK population die as a direct result of cold snaps than in either Finland or Russia, where people are better prepared for low temperatures.
Comparing fatalities in England and Wales during December to March with the number at other times of year, the Office for National Statistics publishes annual estimates of "excess deaths" - those that could be avoided if proper precautions were taken.
This figure has fluctuated between 24,000 in mild winters to 49,000 when weather is harsh and flu levels high.
This year the Met Office has a health forecast unit advising NHS managers on likely levels of illness. The predictions are based on postcodes to allow hospitals to prepare for extra workload and help GPs to target patients with chronic lung disease at times of highest likely risk.
On the basis of the latest weather information, the Met Office estimates more than 2,500 "excess deaths" this week.
William Bird, its medical consultant, said: "The cold snap over Sunday and Monday will lead to a sharp increase in deaths from respiratory and cardiovascular conditions over the next week. Many of these could have been avoided simply by people keeping warm.
"In addition to the increase in cardiovascular admissions over Christmas and Boxing Day, and the usual rise in bron chitis at this time of year, we are looking at a likely increase in respiratory admissions of elderly people in the first week in January."
Sin Griffiths, president of the FPH, the body that sets professional standards in public health, said: "A high proportion of preventable illness and deaths in the UK is caused by people living in damp and cold housing.
"If we see much more of the cold weather of recent days, it is likely that as many as 50,000 people will die unnecessarily over this winter. This is a tragedy ... and also creates a huge - and preventable - strain on the NHS.
"The UK remains one of the worst countries in the world at coping with unseasonable low temperatures. Although the government has shown commitment to tacking the problem, it has not given sufficient priority to such an important public health issue and its approach remains far too uncoordinated."
