The number of people who have died from variant-Creutzfeldt Jakob disease (vCJD) so far in 2004 appears to reflect a year-on-year decline in diagnosis over the last three years, latest Department of Health (DoH) figures show.

As of last week, only two people have died this year in the UK as a result of contracting vCJD, the rare degenerative brain disorder, also known as the human form of mad cow disease.

Latest DoH figures suggest that the numbers of vCJD deaths by the end of this year should be lower than in 2003, when 18 people died from the disease. The numbers of deaths from vCJD have steadily declined since 2000, when 28 people died from the disease.

Although 44 people suspected of contracting vCJD have already been referred to the National CJD Surveillance Unit since January, the majority of cases referred in the past have turned out to be false alarms, according to the DoH figures.

However, a government-funded report in the Journal of Pathology in May suggested that the UK is sitting on a vCJD "timebomb", and that 4,000 people might be unknowingly infected by the agent responsible for the disorder, which is also known as the human form of mad cow disease.

The DoH says that it is impossible to predict how many more people will die this year as a result of contracting vCJD, as a proper diagnosis cannot be made until after death.

"The public shouldn't become complacent about vCJD, as we feel it is too early to make any accurate predictions about how many more cases we will see this year," said David Daley, a spokesman at the Department of Health.