American and European governments are in negotiations with Swiss pharmaceuticals giant Roche to purchase at least £1 billion-worth of its influenza drug Tamiflu, one of the few anti-viral drugs on offer that can treat humans who might contract bird flu.
Another anti-viral drug, Relenza, produced by British giant GlaxoSmithKline, is available only in inhaler form, which makes it less appealing to patients. As a consequence, GSK has not done as well out of the rush by governments to stockpile drugs that could be used in the event of a global bird flu pandemic.
However, GSK won a £1.7m American order for Relenza in September, and analysts say more could follow shortly. GSK is also working flat out to produce a vaccine that could be used to prevent the flu from spreading to humans. 'Obviously, prevention is the best course of action,' said a GSK spokesman.
The US government has also awarded a lucrative contract to French pharmaceuticals heavyweight Sanofi-Aventis to produce a bird flu vaccine. The Paris-based company has taken its bird flu research and development programme to a much more advanced stage than any of its principal competitors.
Roche, meanwhile, received a setback on Friday when a group of scientists said they had found one strain of the bird flu in Vietnam that is resistant to Tamiflu, underlining the need for governments to diversify stockpiles.
Brokers in London say that the total market for bird flu-related medicines could top £3bn. Conventional flu jabs currently count for sales of around £1bn.
But observers stress that it is impossible to predict the level of demand at this stage. It is still not entirely proven that avian flu can jump species to affect human beings.
Nevertheless, Roche is boosting production of Tamiflu following discussions with global health authorities in recent weeks.
'We are in permanent contact with the World Health Organisation and we decided that the best solution is that Roche tries, with its partners, to increase production,' Roche spokesman Alexander Klauser said.
The spread of the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of avian flu in birds migrating from Asia to Europe has prompted a rush on the drug in pharmacies.
Countries have also been assembling national stocks of anti-flu drugs as a precaution against a serous outbreak.
Roche has said it has taken orders from some 30 countries and agreed recently to donate enough Tamiflu to treat 3 million people.
It has been boosting production of the drug since last year and is aiming to raise output to eight or 10 times 2003 levels within 18 months.
Tamiflu has killed the bird flu virus in laboratory tests, but the results were more mixed when it was used on some of the 117 people who contracted the virus in Asia since 2003.
A few months ago, Roche came under attack from its development partner, Gilead, for disappointing sales of Tamiflu. Now Roche faces the challenge of how to produce enough of the drug to meet demand.
