According to a UN report on Aids published this week 38.6 million people are currently living with HIV worldwide. 4.1 million were newly infected with the virus during 2005 and an estimated 2.8 million died of Aids-related illnesses. While statistics such as these are measured in millions, there was one individual case in the UK last year which demanded the world's attention. Andrew Stimpson, 25, was diagnosed as HIV positive in 2002 but subsequently found negative in October 2003 by Chelsea and Westminster Healthcare NHS trust. A year-long investigation concluded that doctors were in no doubt that he had originally been HIV positive. It was "medically remarkable" that he had spontaneously cleared himself of the virus.
Stimpson engaged the services of publicity agent Jonathan Hartley, who operates on a "no fame, no fee" promise, securing two in-depth interviews with Sunday newspapers. "One day I was staring death in the face and now I'm waving it goodbye," said Stimpson last November. "I can't help wondering if I hold the cure for Aids."
These exclusives were met with widespread excitement. One Aids charity spokesman called Stimpson's cure the "statistical equivalent of going to the moon without a spaceship". Another voiced the concerns of many, urging him to "stop giving interviews and start talking to scientists".
By this stage, however, Stimpson had lost confidence in the Chelsea and Westminster trust after unsuccessfully seeking compensation against them in the past. Instead, he decided to work with Professor Jonathan Webber at St Mary's hospital, London. "I will do what I can to help," said Stimpson.
Six months later, it is difficult to work out exactly what is going on. While tests continue at St Mary's, patient confidentiality ensures that no one is currently willing to talk about their results. There is also the equally insurmountable obstacle of media confidentiality: Stimpson's agent has ensured that the Mail on Sunday and the News of the World will be the first to hear of any developments.
In the meantime, we can only go on expert speculation. "It is biologically possible that this happened," says Anna Maria Geretti, a consultant clinical virologist at the Royal Free hospital in London. "But my knee-jerk reaction was not to believe it." False positive antibody results exist even if the chances are about one in a million.
Another possible explanation is that there is something in Stimpson's genetic make-up which makes it difficult for the virus to bind on to his cell receptors. While this would help pharmaceutical companies to improve their antiretroviral drugs, it would not be the breakthrough that some have hoped for. "These follow-up tests are very complicated," explains Dr Geretti. "They could take over six months. But personally, I'm sceptical that they will find a cure from this case."
Meanwhile, people with HIV in the UK are continuing much as before. "People did get hopeful for a bit," says a spokesman for Aids charity Terrence Higgins Trust. "But the story's gone quiet again." HIV in the western world is now comparable to other chronic illnesses such as diabetes. Anyone diagnosed today can expect to live a long and full life.
Such longevity depends, of course, on the availability of suitable medication. According to this week's UN report, 70% of last year's Aids-related deaths occurred in Sub-Saharan Africa and only one in five people with HIV worldwide has access to the necessary drugs. HIV infections may have peaked in the late 1990s, but the global situation is still a far cry from well-funded UK research, medication and Sunday newspaper deals.
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