Intensive care wards could be overwhelmed by severely ill swine flu patients if infection rates in the UK climb rapidly, doctors are warning.
The growing pressure on critical care beds was underlined by the flying of a pregnant 26-year-old from a hospital in Kilmarnock to Sweden for life-saving treatment because of a shortage of equipment in Britain. Sharon Pentleton's family said she was gravely ill, but her doctors believe she has a good chance of recovery.
Yesterday, the World Health Organisation said 800 people had now died worldwide from H1N1 flu and as many as 2 billion people could eventually be infected.
According to Dr Alan Hay, director of the WHO's London-based world influenza centre, the first wave of UK infections is likely to peak within the next week or two before re-emerging in the winter.
Research published in the journal Anaesthesia suggests that when the peak comes, demand for intensive care beds could outstrip supply by 130% in some regions, while the demand for ventilators could exceed supply by 20%. Paediatric facilities are likely to become "quickly exhausted" as hospitals confront "massive excess demand", according to experts in intensive care and anaesthesia from the University of Cambridge, the Intensive Care Society and St George's Healthcare NHS trust in London.
Hospitals on the south-east coast, and in the south-west, east of England and east Midlands are likely to be worst hit, they said. Dr Ari Ercole, of the University of Cambridge, said: "Early experience of the present strain suggests that the attack rate is particularly high in the young and that this virus may severely compromise the immune systems of people who contract it."
Up to 15% of those admitted to hospital with swine flu require intensive care treatment, according to figures from Australia.
Another problem also emerged yesterday. Professor Mike Morgan, who chairs the British Thoracic Society, warned that patients with pneumonia could be misdiagnosed as having swine flu and given anti-viral drugs rather than antibiotics. "Among all the people with swine flu there may be people who have pneumonia and get missed," he said. "Antibiotics are used against pneumonia and the concern is that people will be given Tamiflu instead."
It has been revealed that Sainsbury's will opt out of distributing Tamiflu over fears of encouraging people with swine flu into its stores. Tesco and Asda have signed up some pharmacies as collection points. But while some Sainsbury's pharmacies are supplying the drug there are no plans for the chain to become an official collection point. A spokesman said: "A supermarket, with thousands of daily visitors, is not a suitable collection point as it would lead to increased risk to shoppers and colleagues."
