Seaside towns in Dorset and Devon are likely to be the heart disease capitals of the future, with those least at risk of stroke or heart attack living in "yuppified" areas of London, according to new research that estimates disease rates in every ward in the country.
Nearly one in 10 adults are at risk of heart disease within the decade, according to the research, which charts the future incidence of the UK's biggest killer.
Deprived areas of seaside towns and neighbourhoods with high Asian populations could soon replace former industrial towns in the north of England and Wales as the places with the highest rates of heart disease, the researchers predict.
One in 20 adults have a heart condition, 6.2% have a disease such as diabetes which puts them at risk, and 9.5% have lifestyles which give them more than a 15% chance of angina, a stroke or a heart attack in the next 10 years, the research, seen exclusively by the Guardian, estimates.
Maps for England and Wales are based on census data, publicly available statistics and lifestyle questionnaires filled out by 700,000 people across the country. Respondents were asked their age, weight how much they exercise, smoke and drink and whether they have a family history of cholesterol, high blood pressure or heart disease.
The market researchers TNS and statisticians from the University of Portsmouth, who conducted the research, say they can estimate the rate and risk of heart disease in every ward in the country and by every GP practice's catchment area.
People in Wales and northern towns are most likely to have a heart condition. Some 10% of adults in Merthyr Tydfil are estimated to have heart disease and 9% of those in areas of County Durham and Rhondda Cynon Taff.
But those most at risk of heart disease in the future live in south and east Dorset, followed by north Norfolk, Devon, Eastbourne and Cornwall. About 14% of the population in some areas of Dorset is at risk of developing a heart condition in the next 10 years, compared with about 6% in London boroughs.
The researchers suggest the ageing population, and changing lifestyles combined with better health advice in other areas of the country, are behind the shift in the demographics of heart disease.
David Owen, of TNS, said: "Inner city areas with high levels of deprivation such as Brent or Tower Hamlets are much less healthy than Balham [in south London], which you could say is yuppified. People there are more likely to suffer from a sports injury than heart disease.
"A deprived seaside town would have a number of factors which lead to a high risk. It's a combination of poor diet, lack of exercise, certain ethnicities and older people. When those variables come together you have a less healthy population."
Mike Knapton, director of prevention and care at the British Heart Foundation, said: "It's age and deprivation that are the biggest predictors of heart disease rather than the north-south divide, and we do have misconceptions about what areas are deprived. Rural deprivation is significant."
