The possibility that virtually no one under 65 will die from heart disease in 10 years' time was floated by the government yesterday.
The projections of almost zero premature fatalities, a remarkable medical as well as political victory if achieved, came in a document proclaiming the NHS was winning the war on the condition that kills 110,000 people a year in England.
They were among a welter of statistics flourished by John Reid, health secretary, and Roger Boyle, national director for heart disease, to bolster assertions that cardiac services had been turned round from their "terrible state" when Labour came to power.
There was a 23% fall in all deaths from diseases of the heart or circulatory system between 1997 and 2002. Ministers stressed the eye-catching suggestion for heart disease deaths among under 65s was a projection, not a target.
Heart disease is Britain's biggest killer, and reforms in cardiac services, alongside those for cancer, are seen as trailblazers for the whole NHS to copy.
But much of the success may be down to lifestyle changes, particularly among men who gave up smoking in droves 20 to 30 years ago. The challenge now is whether the government can follow its shake-up in clinical structures by persuading the public to modify eating, drinking and exercise habits.
Mr Reid, however, had no doubt improvements were "substantially" due to investment, reform of services and new drugs. The British Heart Foundation believes recent organisational changes introduced by the government have had a marked effect on fighting heart disease. Its medical director, Sir Charles George, singled out the "particularly impressive record" in treating patients after a heart attack.
Ministers feel they are winning the political battle over the future of the NHS, by showing progress in delivery following the extra funds of recent years. However, Tim Yeo, the shadow health secretary, put the "welcome reduction in death rates" down to advances in medicines and technology, while claiming any reduction in waiting lists was down to use of the independent sector for operations.
The theoretical figures for under-65s were based on past mortality rates compiled by the office of national statistics, but the ONS never makes forward statistical predictions.
The trend was falling long before Labour came to office, but the possibility that very few women will be dying prematurely of heart disease by 2011, with a similar position for men coming two years later, were presented as an indicator of how far services had progressed under Labour.
The government said about 1.8 million people were now on statins, cholesterol-lowering drugs. This could alone be preventing 7,000 deaths a year as well as reducing heart attacks, still suffered by 275,000 people a year.
By the end of this month, no heart patient in England should be waiting more than six months for an operation - encouraging the government to promise that, from next April, patients will have a choice on where to have surgery.
