The birth rate has climbed to its highest point in 13 years to an average of 1.8 children for every woman in England and Wales, the Office for National Statistics said yesterday.
The climb from an all-time low of 1.63 children per woman in 2001 is still significantly below the level needed for replacement - which is more than two. But there was speculation yesterday that the childcare reforms of the Blair government might be having an impact.
"We looked at the reasons for this slight, hopeful rise," said Julia Margo, author of a report called Population Politics published in February by the Institute for Public Policy Research. "It seems to map on to 2001 when Labour started pushing on family friendly policies and childcare. There is a better deal now from government than ever before."
But, she added, there were other possible reasons that do not hold out promise for the rise across all groups which is needed for a sustained increase in births. "We don't have access to the background data, which would tell us whether there are socio-economic differences, whether professional women will still be having less children." It could be that the rise is restricted to poorer women and those from migrant groups, who traditionally have had larger families.
The evidence is still that women are having babies at a later age. The ONS says the average age in 2005 was 29.5 years - up just 0.1% from the previous year, but nonetheless continuing to rise. Last year, as in the year before, most births were in the 30- to 34-year-old group.
Total number of live births was 645,835, which is 1% higher than in 2004. Infant deaths were at an all-time low for England and Wales, at 3,248.
The ONS statistics point up regional differences in the birth rate. It was highest in the West Midlands, with an average 1.91 children per woman. Women in the north east appear to be having the fewest children, with a birth rate of 1.74.
When the figures are broken down into the smaller strategic health authority areas, north-east London scores highest, with a birth rate above the replacement level, at 2.08 children per woman. South-west London has the lowest score, at 1.62 children per woman. The highest birth rate in Wales was in the Torfaen Local Health Board area, where it reached 2.07. The lowest in Wales was Ceredigion, with only 1.38.
The numbers of births outside marriage continued to rise in 2005 - to 42.8% from 42.2% the year before.
The numbers of deaths continued to fall and have hit the lowest levels for 50 years. In 2005 there were 512, 993 deaths in England and Wales - the lowest number in one year since 1954, when 501,896 were registered. Deaths among men have fallen sharply - by a quarter - over the last 10 years.
