The outbreak of swine flu in Scotland appears to have peaked after the latest estimate of case numbers suggested that only about 34 new cases a day are emerging.

According to figures released by health officials today, 240 new swine flu cases have emerged in Scotland over the last seven days – considerably lower than the peak rates in June.

In contrast with the Department of Health in England, Scottish officials are only releasing precise figures on the number of GP referrals for "flu-like" symptoms. They said laboratory tests on samples showed that only 10% of the 2,400 people seeing doctors with flu-like illnesses actually had swine flu.

The new figures support predictions by Prof Hugh Pennington, one of the UK's leading bacteriologists, that this wave of swine flu may have peaked in Scotland, nearly three months after the first two British cases emerged in Polmont near Falkirk.

Pennington said earlier today he believed Scotland was "possibly through the worst of this phase of the virus". Earlier this month, Scotland's chief medical officer, Dr Harry Burns, said two of the country's largest hotspots, Glasgow and Dunoon, were fading out.

In June Scotland saw the UK's first swine flu death, and the first spate of intensive care cases. But officials said today there were now only two people in hospital, compared to 55 since the outbreak began.

There has been a spike in cases in Tayside, but officials said this could reflect increased reporting by GPs or a statistical blip.

In England, there has been an estimated 100,000 new cases since last week, with 840 people in hospital with the virus, including 63 in intensive care, the Department of Health said today.

Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish health secretary, said there were no plans at present to set up a national flu helpline in Scotland, since infection rates were low and existing services were coping.

She said: "These latest figures show that H1N1 continues to circulate in Scotland but overall levels of illness which may be due to this virus remain relatively low."

"We are keeping this situation under review and if demand grows over the next few months, we have the ability to opt into the national pandemic flu service at a later stage."