The Irish Republic will give its views on abortion in a referendum tomorrow. But the woman's right to choose is not at issue. The government instead wants to stop threatened suicide being grounds for a termination. So, for the third time in two decades, voters are being asked to give constitutional protection to "the unborn".
Catholic priests urged a yes vote at mass on Sunday, but that is no guarantee of success. Confusion reigns as fundamentalist anti-abortionists disagree with the main pro-life campaign and urge a no vote, alongside liberal opponents.
Ireland has undergone major social changes since the first referendum. Contraception is freely available. Divorce has been allowed since 1995. Gays and heterosexuals have an equal age of consent. And fewer people attend weekly mass, though church attendance remains the highest in Europe. Yet 7,000 Irish women come to Britain for abortions each year. And while an Irish Times/MRBI poll last week found that 57% of voters accept terminations to save a mother's life, only 9% back liberal abortion laws, while 28% totally oppose abortion.
When voters gave mothers and "the unborn" equal constitutional rights to life in 1983, abortion was illegal. It then became unconstitutional, causing endless legal problems. In the 1992 "X case", the supreme court ruled that a 14-year-old suicidal rape victim should be allowed a termination, though she hadn't necessarily the right to go abroad for one. Another referendum that year (with three separate issues) ensured that women could travel for abortions. It upheld a European court decision that well woman clinics could provide abortion information, which injunctions obtained by pro-life groups had prevented. But voters rejected an attempt to rule "self-destruction" out as grounds for abortion.
Anti-abortionists believe this suicide "loophole" could lead to abortion on demand. Yet doctors' ethical guidelines rule out such abortions. And when the courts allowed a regional health board to arrange for a 13-year-old suicidal rape victim in its care to have an abortion in 1997, she was sent to England.
Tomorrow's referendum has no simple yes/no question. Voters are instead asked to give constitutional force to the 76-line protection of human life in pregnancy bill. Changing a single word would require another ballot. That bill explicitly rules out threatened suicide as grounds for abortion. Doctors may, however, terminate a pregnancy to save a woman's life (such as in womb cancer cases). There are a dozen such operations in Dublin annually. But such treatment would be confined to "designated" centres, causing potential problems for rural women. Anyone "aiding or procuring an abortion" faces 12 years in jail.
The airwaves have been filled with complex legal and medical minutiae. Lawyers promise to bring clarity to the confusion. Doctors disagree about existing medical practice. Psychiatrists debate whether the threat of suicide is grounds for abortion. But a row between pro-lifers over the distinction between conception and implantation has been the hardest fought. The bill defines abortion as the "intentional destruction of any means of unborn life after implantation in the womb". The government says this safeguards emergency contraception. But the Catholic bishops, led by Cardinal Desmond Connell, argue that a yes vote in the referendum would not preclude a future challenge to the morning-after pill.
Yes campaigners also fear the clause could be lost because fundamentalist anti-abortion campaigners such as the former Eurovision winner, Dana Rosemary Scallon MEP, are urging a no vote, arguing that the implantation reference would permit abortion and embryo research. Those fundamentalists in turn attack liberal no campaigners, including the Fine Gael, Labour and Green opposition parties, who say the bill threatens women's lives and propose legislating for suicide-related abortions instead. But even they are not united. Labour's leadership vetoed a conference vote in favour of the woman's right to choose. And rural Fine Gael politicians are split, with former taoiseach John Bruton advocating a yes vote. Others prefer silence so close to a general election.
Despite the independent referendum commission's belated distribution of a million explanatory leaflets, only 17% of voters claim to understand the issues well. A third are still undecided or will abstain. The result seems too close to call, as the rest are evenly split with 35% for and 31% against, though some individual constituency polls signalled that the referendum could be lost.
If he loses this referendum, it would be Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's second defeat, having failed to win backing for the Nice treaty last year. Yet he remains the clear favourite in the general election expected in May (though he will still need smaller party support to govern). And by holding the referendum, he has kept his promise to four conservative independents who backed his coalition (though one now says he wanted the general election first).
As long as women can take a short flight to Britain, Irish politicians are unlikely to offer them the option of a domestic abortion. There is considerable resentment about the bitterness and confusion created by the constant revisiting of this issue, and few in Ireland want another repeat. Yet whatever the result tomorrow, it is sure to be challenged in the courts. And while the republic's constitution requires controversial social issues to be settled by referendum rather than Dail votes, even a fourth re-run cannot be ruled out.
· Conor Ryan is a writer specialising in Irish affairs
