It's tempting, isn't it? Sir Liam Donaldson, the government's chief medical officer, said yesterday that the arrival of bird flu in the UK is a matter of "when, not if", and that 50,000 are likely to die, though others estimate up to 750,000. There is no vaccine, but Tamiflu - made by Swiss drug-makers Roche - will alleviate the symptoms and, said Donaldson, "stop some people dying from it". The government has stockpiled 2.5m doses - one-sixth of what the UK needs. It will take at least a year to obtain the rest. Happy Christmas.
In France, Italy and Switzerland, the public are already clamouring for private supplies. Now the panic buying is spreading to the UK. Tamiflu is only available in the UK on prescription, so buyers are looking to the internet. But how easy is it to obtain? Buytamiflu.co.uk says that due to heavy demand, "you will find it very hard to obtain Tamiflu from a UK website". Instead, it directs buyers to two international sites. One claims it can supply the drug "in three working days by recognised international courier". Another, based in Canada, says stocks are running low and it may take up to four weeks to process orders. Prices are high. A sufferer will need 10 75mg capsules for a five-day course of treatment. That can cost anything between £60 and £100.
Are there ethical issues in buying privately? If supplies to public stockpiles are unaffected, no. "It's a matter of personal choice," says a spokesman for the Department of Health. But private suppliers must get their drugs somewhere. If private buying spiralled, public stockpiles might be imperilled. By buying privately, you are also feeding the mood of frenzy. In France, prime minister Dominique de Villepin has pleaded with the public "not to give in to panic".
The decision, as the DoH says, is a personal one. I wouldn't buy privately, not because of ethics, but because I don't want to further stretch my overdraft and would worry about the reliability of the source. But the real determinant is trust. Do we believe what Donaldson is telling us, that come the crisis there will be enough Tamiflu to go round? Call me naive, but I do.
