Life expectancy in Europe is still rising says an editorial by Professor David Leon in the latest edition of the International Journal of Epidemiology. In the UK, one in five people alive today will see their 100th birthday. But is this a good thing?
What is life expectancy?
Life expectancy at birth estimates how long, on average, a baby born today could expect to live, if the current mortality rates at different ages applied throughout their life. The CIA's world factbook says that a person born in the UK in 2011 can expect to live to 80.05 years of age. This compares to a staggering 89.73 years if you are one of the handful of babies born in Monaco and a terrible 38.76 years if you are born in Angola. Life expectancy can be distorted by rates of deaths in childhood. Historically, the life expectancy in Roman times is said to have been between 22 and 25, but if a Roman survived to five, he or she had a good chance of living to their late 40s.
Why is life expectancy rising?
There has been a huge rise in life expectancy in the UK over the past century. In 1901 women could expect to live to 49 and men to 45. This compares to the average in England today of 82.1 years for women and 77.7 for men (in Wales the rates are 81.4 for women, 77.1 for men and in Scotland 80.3 for women and 75.3 for men). Better living conditions (sanitation), nutrition and antibiotics have reduced child mortality. In 1901 almost 40% of deaths occurred among those aged under five. In 1999 less than 1% of deaths were under the age of five. Adults have also benefitted from these things, and have seen reductions in heart disease due to healthier living and advances in medical care. But life expectancy varies with how affluent you are: men born into the most affluent areas in the UK are living five years longer than those in the poorest.
Why are there still differences in life expectancy between men and women?
The gap has been closing between women and men. Traditionally, men are thought to have riskier behaviour – drinking and smoking more and therefore dying more often from lung cancer and cirrhosis, plus they are less likely to get medical help, meaning a delay in diagnosis. They are also more likely to die from injuries, from car accidents to violent assaults, and in wars.
Will we be healthier for longer?
Some people say what counts is healthy life expectancy – the number of years spent in good health. A paper by the North West Public Health Observatory says that in 1981 women could expect 10.1 years of poor health. In 2001 this had risen to 11.6 years. Men have 8.6 years of poor health. Professor Leon writes that rising obesity rates have not yet reduced life expectancy, but you might expect them to reduce healthy life expectancy.
