Mention the word "Obamacare" and I've been tuning out. Healthcare in America is starting to rank up there with abortion and certain Middle East conflicts. You know where the vocal people stand and there's little that will change their minds. Take this gentleman on my Twitter feed:

Obama Care is the door opener for government to decide for you whatever it chooses. You will lose choice forever if this plan proceeds.

— Leonard Park (@RIGHTZONE) September 23, 2013

We're in political posturing overload. The Obama administration is giving speeches and running ads promoting the plan, even getting Bill Clinton involved, while certain Republicans are trying to defund it (again), just in case anyone in America forgot that zero Republicans voted for the Affordable Care Act when it passed in 2010.

The reality is that most of America is really unsure about it, which is exactly how it should be – because you can look at talking points and models all day, but no one knows for sure what's going to happen. The critical tests for Obamacare are coming, and they have little or nothing to do with Congress. Here are the five key tests to watch, so you can make your own conclusions:

1. The 1 October launch

First impressions are everything. The October launch of the health exchanges is going to be as closely scrutinized as a new Apple product. Millions of people in need of health insurance – or just curious to compare what's on offer – will have the ability to search the plans available in their state and sign up. As with anything on the web, plenty could go wrong. The system could be overwhelmed, the site could fail to accept payments or mishandle data. Early tests haven't been pretty, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis.

But here's what you have to remember: people have until 31 March to sign up. If it doesn't all happen in week one, it's OK. The insurance coverage doesn't even start until January. There's time to work out the glitches and get people informed. Furthermore, even private employers have trouble with their "open enrollment" system for health insurance, and they are dealing with a lot fewer people than the 6 to 7 million expected to be on the exchanges in coming months.

2. Will costs go up or down?

There will be immediate reactions and news reports in October as individuals share stories of whether they are better- or worse-off buying insurance on the exchanges. The early signs are promising. A Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of 17 states found that 15 of them had insurance policies on offer at lower prices than expected on the exchanges.

Of course, what happens to individuals is only the first test. Many of the legal requirements for businesses under Obamacare were delayed until 2015, so expect a lot more debate on that a year from now. Ultimately, the number to pay attention to is whether overall health costs in America go up or down. A big fear is that America's uninsured – many of whom could be unhealthy – are going to flood the exchanges, overwhelm the healthcare system and generally drive costs up for everyone. The counter to that is that it should be cheaper to get people insurance and routine healthcare, instead of the uninsured waiting until they're really sick and showing up in emergency rooms, and that costs, while continuing to rise, will grow at a slower pace than they were.

3. Are people losing work/benefits because of Obamacare?

If you've read any headlines about Obamacare lately, this is the most alarming. Several high-profile companies, including Home Depot, UPS and Trader Joe's have announced changes to their workers' hours or health insurance because of the new law. Two things are happening here: one is that large companies are required to provide a certain amount of insurance to full-time employees by 2015 or face penalties. Since this provision doesn't kick in for a while, there haven't been many dramatic announcements. The second issue is that Obamacare sets the definition of a part-time worker at 30 hours. What we're starting to see is companies hiring more part-time workers instead of full-time workers or reducing current employee hours.

But it's not all doom and gloom for part-time workers. There have been some companies making changes, but not an avalanche. And Gary Claxton, vice-president and director of the Health Care Marketplace Project at the Kaiser Family Foundation, has this reminder:

What's clear is that not many companies offer part-time workers benefits and when they do, there's not much take up because the coverage is expensive. It makes more sense for those workers to go to the exchange where they have the possibility of getting a tax credit.

4. Limited care

If you remember anything from the 2009 and 2010 Obamacare debates, it's probably the "death panels": the notion that the government is going to restrict care and decide whether grandma lives or dies. We've (mostly) moved away from that scare tactic, but the legitimate issue is that in order to make cost-efficient plans, insurers are limiting the number of doctors and hospitals in the network and restricting payments to them. This happens already under Medicaid and Medicare, and people sometimes struggle to find doctors to take them.

But here's the flip side to this problem: insurers are supposed to be keeping costs down on the plans offered on the exchanges. So far, it looks like they're doing a decent job of that. But keeping costs down requires insurers to bargain with doctors and hospitals on prices. The key isn't "can insurance plans on the exchanges get all the physicians to participate"; it's "can they get enough?"

5. Will this new system work alongside the employer system?

This is another big question, to which no one really knows the answer. As Gary Claxton puts it:

We need to see how this system meshes up with the employer-based system. You have two different things that need to work together. How well will that happen?

These are the important milestones to watch out for on Obamacare. And while we're at it, here's what not to care about:

1. People don't get it

Plenty of polls tell us that Americans – upward of 70% of them – don't understand Obamacare. But guess what? People don't understand a lot of complicated things, including our current healthcare system. You just have to take a quick scan on Facebook or Twitter to see stories of how people are battling with insurers, hospitals, employers etc over what's covered and what isn't now. People don't need to understand all the intricacies, they just need to understand where to get more information and sign up. Much of that will become clear as the exchanges go live.

2. Senator Ted Cruz's defunding charade

The whole defunding push from some Republicans in Congress is unlikely to go anywhere. That's why even many conservative pundits are telling GOP politicians to halt this defunding act. As many have pointed out, this is mostly about certain politicians raising their profile and campaign funds.